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Thursday, September 29, 2011
Power of Control Charts and IT-Chart Concept (Part 1)
This is the video presentation about Control Charts. It is based on my workshop I have already run a few times. It shows how to read and use Control Charts for reporting and analyzing IT systems performance (e.g. servers, applications) . My original IT-(Control) Chart concept within SEDS (Statistical Exception Detection System) is also presented.
The Part 2 will be about "How to build" control chart using R, SAS, BIRT and just
If anybody interested I would be happy to conduct this workshop again remotely via Internet or in person. Just put a request or just a comment here.
UPDATE: See the version of this presentation with the Russian narration:
Igor Trubin began his engineering career in 1979 as an IBM/370 systems engineer. He earned a Ph.D. in Robotics from St. Petersburg Technical University in 1986 and spent 12 years there as a professor teaching CAD/CAM and Robotics. He has published and presented more than 60 technical papers and conference presentations in robotics, artificial intelligence, IT performance, capacity management, anomaly detection, and FinOps. After moving to the U.S. in 1999, Igor worked at Capital One, IBM, and SunTrust Bank in senior engineering, architecture, and management roles. His 2002 CMG paper on exception detection received a Best Paper Award. He later developed Perfomalist.com, based on his original methods for anomaly, change-point, and trend detection, and created the online course “Performance Anomaly Detection.” At Capital One, he led development of cloud capacity-management and FinOps solutions, including the award-winning OptiCloud application. He has served on the CMG Board of Directors since 2015. Now semi-retired, Igor focuses on research, writing, and consulting. His current work expands his concept of the “Area of Normal Functioning” (ANF) from technical systems to human, orga
9 comments:
Igor, good information and I appreciate the formal and thorough presentation materials giving us a chance to think on this at a level of depth. I have used similar charting / methodologies on many levels for mainframe performance and capacity planning. In addition to performance related analysis, one area I have found this process / approach to be particularly useful and important is when developing baselines needed with each major forecast/capacity review cycle. Not only is the base-lining process key to an effective forecast, it allows the capacity planners to update their knowledge and expertise on the various LPARs / resources and workload / application usage since the last cycle. Second, this type statistical data analysis and charting is integral to scrubbing the baseline and removing one-time or invalid anomalies from the "typical peak day" baseline needed to build a forecast. Third, the base-lining process should be done at a level of analysis that will identify / address unusual and/or trending anomalies or unplanned growth before significant business impacts occur. Fourth, it is especially important to assess / validate the previous forecasts using the new baselines to calculate plus / minus utilization deltas and update "forecast accuracy" tracking data. Lastly, ongoing use of the charts are key to completing monthly mini-forecasts needed to track status of workload growth and upgrade schedules and associated plans. Thanks again for your continued good work and thinking.
Posted by Jack (John R.)
I think the idea for this type of video is great. You are the zen master of this methodology and I thank you for sharing you knowledge and wisdom in this area.
While I loved the content of the presentation, I think the format made it hard to follow. I don't know if you intended for us to do this, but I phased most of the slides to read and absorb the information. I was actually hoping / looking forward to comments from you about each slide. The hammer like sound you used for a slide transition should be replaced with something that has a softer sound.
Again, I really loved the content, but I think it would be a better learning tool if you had an audio track to augment the slides.
I watched the Video and think that you are on a great path.
I would just make one suggestion though - it appears that in many instances, you aren't using control charts in the statistical sense ; more like line graphs that depict trends.
To take this to the next step and truly be using a control chart - I would establish control limits (or let a good program do it for me), and have planned responses to the actions.
Possibly put the data into a program such as JMP, Minitab, or Statgraphics (not endorsing or advertising for any of them), and apply the "tolerance" bands of what is funcitonal to the data / feature being measured & analyzed, and see if there are any out of control points within the data trends. This provides more of a methodical response to an "occurence" as depicted by the data and not just a subjective response to a percieved problem / difference at a point in time.
Just a thought. Again, nice work - it is this out of the box thinking in applying statistical techniques to processes that are not limited to manufacturing that will create cost savings as a whole for many businesses & in turn consumers, and not just the "factory" guys.
Good job.
Posted by Ray
I liked the presentation and would like to see the next part. I do have questions about the general applicability.
Have you read my 2009 CMG paper on applying survival analysis to computer systems? The assumption of normality of response times cannot be assumed. What do you think? Part of my goal, not discussed in the paper, was to automate real time exception reporting.
I have previously read your papers on MASF and thought they were very good.\
Thank you
Brian
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