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Thursday, December 2, 2021

Dynamics of Anomalies or Phases in a Dynamic Object Life

A dynamic object may have following several phases in its lifetime:

1.  Initial phase to set a norm - anomalies cannot be detected as there is no baseline sample is established yet. Could be tired later as an outlier.

2.  Stable period without any anomalies.

3. Unstable period when anomalies are appearing: suddenly or with gradually increasing rate.

4. Anomalies are introducing a new norm and the rate of anomalies is gradually decreasing.

5. =>2. The next stable period. 

6. =>3. … and so on.

To detect those dynamic object phases one can use Anomaly and Change Point detection methods. One of them is SETDS (described in this blog), which has been implementing now as a www.Perfomalist.com tool. 

Here is an example how the Perfomalist (Download Input Data Sample) test data is used to detect stable and unstable periods.

Data consists of 28 weeks. To see some dynamic and to  catch when anomalies started appearing, the data was divided into 23 data sets. 

- The 1st one has 4 initial weeks (initial baseline or reference/learning set) plus following week (1st "current" week). 

- The 2nd one has 5 initial weeks as the next (on one week bigger) baseline and following week as the next  "current" week. 

- The 3rd one... the same mechanism as described above.

Then the www.Perfomalist.com was applied 23 times (could be automated using Personalist APIs)  and results were combined into the spreadsheet. 

The table and daily summarized charts are below. The result shows clearly 2nd (stable)  and 3rd (unstable) phases. 




Another way to detect is CPD and to do that another Perfomalist API can be used.
Applying that to the same data the similar result is seen:


The results are similar but a bit different and I know why.... 







Tuesday, November 23, 2021

Join me with CMG – your technology community – at #CMGIMPACT22. Use code Trubin at cmgimpact.com/ for 50% off IMPACT tickets cmgimpact.com/register/ #cmgnews #technology #InformationTechnology #ITconference #ContinuingEducation #ProfessionalDevelopment

Monday, November 22, 2021

The Change Point Detection SETDS based method is implemented as a Perfomalist API. Everybody is welcome to test!

How to use it explained HERE:

https://www.trutechdev.com/2021/11/the-change-points-detection-perfomalapi.html

Example of the step jump event detected by the API (Output got from the API call via Postman and spreadsheet was used to chart the result):



Saturday, October 30, 2021

My presentation "Cloud Servers Rightsizing with Seasonality Adjustments" has been accepted for CMG IMPACT 2022. #CMGnews

Tuesday, September 21, 2021

Got my 1st #AWScertification

 View of  my verified achievement from Amazon Web Services (AWS) is HERE

AWS Certified Cloud Practitioner was issued by Amazon Web Services Training and Certification to Igor Trubin

Friday, July 30, 2021

"Performance #Anomaly and #ChangePointDetection For Large-Scale System Management" for WorldS4 2021 - my presentation slides deck is available on RG

 I have successfully made my presentation at WorldS4 conference. Presentation deck is available HERE













Friday, July 23, 2021

I'm excited to present my paper "Performance #Anomaly and Change Point Detection for Large-Scale System Management" at 5th World Conference on Smart Trends in Systems, Security and Sustainability

See that in the agenda: https://sched.co/lEkJ

 


Tuesday, July 20, 2021

Presenting in London - "Performance Anomaly and Change Point Detection For Large-Scale System Management"

I will be presenting at the Worlds3 conference in London my paper

"Performance Anomaly and Change Point Detection For Large-Scale System Management"

(https://www.researchgate.net/publication/340926055_Performance_Anomaly_and_Change_Point_Detection_For_Large-Scale_System_Management)

Time slot in London time: 04:30 - 06:00 on 29th July 2021



Friday, June 11, 2021

Cloud Capacity Management Explained by CMG.org - #cmgnews

CMG publications about Cloud Capacity Management (some links accessible only for CMG members)

  1. Cloud Capacity Management (PDF doc from Metron-Athene)

  2. 8 Things You Need to Know About Capacity Planning for the Cloud (helpsystem)

  3. How to Do Capacity Management in the Cloud (helpsystem).

  4. (in UT) How to do Capacity Management in the Cloud Text is HERE (TeamQuest)  

  1. Building and Rebuilding a Data Center Every Day  (Netflix)

  1. Netflix Performance Tales in One Take

  2. Cloud Cost Optimization at Spotify

  1. Lifting the Cloud of Obscurity from your Cloud Deployment

  2. The new dimensions of cloud – IT infrastructure resource planning, optimization and cost BMC Software

  3. Redefining Enterprise Cloud Transformations: How Fidelity Investments is establishing a new foundation for Observability and Reliability (is coming)

  1. Cloud Capacity Management  by Kevin McLaughlin (Capital One)

  2. Under cloudy skies capacity planning in changing times – Brian Wong, Capital One

  3. Optimizing your Cloud – Igor Trubin, IT Manager, Capital One

Monday, June 7, 2021

How am I doing? LinkedIn recommendations (this year)