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Thursday, December 18, 2014

CMG'14: "A New (?) Approach to Capacity Forecasting" vs. IT Control Charts

I have enjoyed as usual the CMG'14 International conference and found a few papers there still related to this particular blog subject.

One of them is " A New Approach to Capacity Forecasting by  Linda Carroll (IBM, USA)

Traditionally, a capacity forecast is presented at the month view of the data and has the tendency to represent capacity trends in a straight predictable line. This paper will show the value of measuring and reporting system capacity based on a weekly view. It also introduces the use of Process Control Analysis to confirm the forecasting methodology and the accuracy of the capacity forecast. What differentiates this methodology is that it is currently being used in real world operations where it has been very successful.

This paper I am afraid is attempt to "re-invent the wheel" as SPC and MASF variation of that has found the way to be used in Capacity planning for years and  specifically my CMG papers have detailed explanation how to do it by using Control charts and especially weekly profile ones (IT-Control Charts).  Bellow video has some example of short term forecasting that IT-Control chart can do: