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Thursday, December 18, 2014

CMG'14: "A New (?) Approach to Capacity Forecasting" vs. IT Control Charts

I have enjoyed as usual the CMG'14 International conference and found a few papers there still related to this particular blog subject.

One of them is " A New Approach to Capacity Forecasting by  Linda Carroll (IBM, USA)

Traditionally, a capacity forecast is presented at the month view of the data and has the tendency to represent capacity trends in a straight predictable line. This paper will show the value of measuring and reporting system capacity based on a weekly view. It also introduces the use of Process Control Analysis to confirm the forecasting methodology and the accuracy of the capacity forecast. What differentiates this methodology is that it is currently being used in real world operations where it has been very successful.

This paper I am afraid is attempt to "re-invent the wheel" as SPC and MASF variation of that has found the way to be used in Capacity planning for years and  specifically my CMG papers have detailed explanation how to do it by using Control charts and especially weekly profile ones (IT-Control Charts).  Bellow video has some example of short term forecasting that IT-Control chart can do:

PROCESSING EXCEPTION HANDLING. Patent by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing

My co-author, Kevin McLaughlin has found this patent. Here is a link:

In accordance with an embodiment, a method for exception handling comprises accessing an exception type for an exception, filtering historical data based on at least one defined criterion to provide a data train comprising data sets, assigning a Weight to each data set, and providing a current control parameter. The data sets each comprise a historical condition and a historical control parameter, and the Weight assigned to each data set is based on each historical condition. The current control parameter is provided using the Weight and the historical control parameter for each data set."

We are glad to see a reference to two my papers that examiner of this patent (Jay Morrison ) cited:

Igor Trubin, Ph.D.,Global and Application Levels Exception Detection System Based on MASF Technique”, Proceedings of the Computer Measurement Group, 2002.
Kevin McLaughlin and Igor Trubin, “Exception Detection System, Based on the Statistical Process Control Concept”, Proceedings of the Computer Measurement Group, 2001