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Saturday, January 7, 2017



I Trubin, M Schutt, J Robinson - US Patent 20,160,379,143, 2016

This disclosure relates generally to system modeling, and more particularly to systems and methods for modeling computer resource metrics. In one embodiment, a processor-implemented computer resource metric modeling method is disclosed. The method may include detecting one or more statistical trends in aggregated interaction data for one or more interaction types, and mapping each interaction type to one or more devices facilitating the transactions. The method may further include generating one or more linear regression models of a relationship between device utilization and interaction volume, and calculating one or more diagnostic statistics for the one or more linear regression models. A subset of the linear regression models may be filtered out based on the one or more diagnostic statistics. One or more forecasts may be generated using the remaining linear regression models, using which a report may be generated and provided.

NB: This patent application uses  statistical exception and trend detection (SETD) data to do modeling.

Tuesday, December 27, 2016

How Bayesian inference works. Can that improve the SPC?

What about using that approach for SPC?  At least one article is HERE about it:
Bayesian Statistical Process Control
 and some dispute is HERE:

Why isn't bayesian statistics more popular for statistical process control 

Note there is a "Bayesian statistical process control chart"...

In my experience we often do not have too many data to be used for mean, UCL and LCL  calculations, so based on "An Application to Bayesian Methods in SPC": 

I plan to explore this more....

Wednesday, December 7, 2016

The BANK should be a tech company to win the market

I work for Capital One bank as IT SME and naturally I support the direction it goes. Friends keep asking me how the bank could be a tech company like Netflix? The best who can answer that question is the CIO of Capital One. HERE IT IS:

Capital One rides the cloud to tech company transformation

I finally am getting  use to a new style of workplace I have now:
The picture from the article linked above

Friday, December 2, 2016

CMG'16 (#imPACt) aftershocks: Could we WAC the #Cloud? or how to build cube of cubes

One of the finding from my CMG'16 conference attending and speaking with the vendor's representatives is the 6fusion  way to measure systems overall status by WAC - Workload Allocation Cube. 

"The tool measures the resource consumption of AWS compute (EC2) instances, along with Elastic Block Storage (EBS) volumes. It does this via 6fusion's "Workload Allocation Cube" (WAC) technology, which works by measuring datapoints that include CPU utilization, disk utilization, storage capacity, and disk, WAN, and LAN IOPS. This information is aggregated through its WAC technology to output a single value that reflects the performance and resource use of an app." http://www.theregister.co.uk/2013/07/29/6fusion_workload_allocation_cube/

My comment so far is following:

Long ago I tried to use "System Health Index" (from Concord eHeallth performance monitor) to estimate the system usage based on 5 main subsystems measures and published my thoughts about it in my CMG'03;06;07 papers; E.G.  see some details in the following post.

Disk Subsystem Capacity Management - my CMG'03 paper - "Health Index" metric and Dynamic Thresholds

Having that metric recorded I have suggested (in my CMG'07 paper) to use the Tree-map report against that to get one  overall health check picture of numerous systems.

Also I have applied my anomaly detection technique (SEDS) against that Health Index metric to detect at once any abnormal cases across all main 5 subsystems:

I have published a few examples in my CMG'06  SYSTEM MANAGEMENT BY EXCEPTION, PART 6 

Anyway I see  some similarity between modern "WAC" and the olde good "Health Index". Do you see it as well?

P.S. One more thing.... WAC is a cube and the SEDS data (SEDS profile) in the picture above is also a data cube that represent a "signature" of the object (server in the case). Actually if the Health index a cube also, the SEDS Health index profile would be a cube of cubes....!? ,

Anyway here is the discussion how that SEDS profile data cube can be built using the open source tools (my most visited post in this blog, btw...):

One Example of BIRT Data Cubes Usage for Performance Data Analysis 

Tuesday, November 29, 2016

Invitation to the Advanced Software in #Robotics conference in LIEGE (Belgium-1983) to present my paper

I was a co-author of the paper "Mathematical simulation of tasks of robot operation accuracy and readability". See the session 4 in the agenda above. (Note my initial is misspelled as C.A. TRUBIN , should be I.A. TRUBIN).

That was USSR time and in spite we were invited and even sent our paper translated into English, instead of us some communist functioner went there and even did not appear at the conference... So it was not really published...
I have found the  online documents so far related to this - http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/4336367/
- http://dl.acm.org/citation.cfm?id=577664
https://www.amazon.com/Advanced-Software-Robotics-International-Proceedings/dp/0444868143 (where the preceedings could be bought!)

Saturday, November 12, 2016

Help us generate content for the CMG blog -LinkedIn CMG group discussion

Be the hero of CMG, write a blog post! - Renato Bonomini

At the #CMGimPACt conference, did you learn something that you'd like to share? - Todd Minnella

Share your learnings, they'll make a great blog post! Did you leave with more questions than answers? Share your questions, they will be our content ideas!

Do you have a crazy idea? Let us know! - Melanie Heimer

Share your ideas in the comments, or contact me or Igor Trubin directly!

Sunday, November 6, 2016

Sitting on the Board of Directors (www.CMG.org)


I am at CMG'2016 conference (imPACt) right now and going to attend the following session:


by Alexander Gilgur, Steve Politis (Facebook, Inc.)

We often talk about performance and capacity as one thing, and indeed they complement each other in a powerful balancing loop: higher capacity improves performance, decreased performance indicates insufficient capacity, which needs to be provisioned for. However, we often miss the fact that measurement and aggregation approaches that are used in performance monitoring are not always useful for capacity planning, while approaches that we use in capacity planning are often meaningless for performance analysis. This paper explores this gap and discusses ways to reconcile the two tasks.

I really appreciate they have mentioned my following work in their paper:

Trubin, I. (2006) System Management by Exception. Presented at the Annual International Conference of the Computer Measurement Group (CMG 2006). Reno, NV. December 2006.

But I feel like my later publication was more relevant to the subject:

Exception Based Modeling and Forecasting - CMG'2008


How often does the need arises for modeling and forecasting? Should it be done manually by ad-hoc, by project requests or automatically? What tools and techniques are best for that? When is trending forecast enough and when is a correlation with business drivers required? The answers to these questions are presented in this session. The capacity management system should automatically provide a small list of resources that needs to be modeled or forecasted; a simple spreadsheet tool can be used for that. This technique method is already implemented on the author’s environment with thousands of servers.
I am looking forward meeting the presenter (my long time CMG friend Alex) to discuss this....