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Friday, February 22, 2013

Exception Value (EV) Metrics and Technical Analysis Indicators


I HAD TO RE-ENTER THIS POST (from e-mail copy I got about my previous posting) AS BLOGGER HAS LOST MY ORIGINAL ONE!!!!


This is my 1st CMG’12 trip report.

The following CMG workshop: Albert Mavashev - "Ensuring the Performance of Business‐Critical Apps in the Cloud" on a top of Cloud monitoring topic has touched the subject that relates to this blog.

The author offers to apply some indicators from technical analysis (of securities trading) to detect anomalies or resource leaks against computer performance data.

The following known indicators were mentioned: Bollinger Bands and Momentum Oscillator

Apparently the author was not aware of the System performance exceptions/anomalies /changes detection methodologies that are commonly used in the IT Capacity Management, such as MASF and SETDS (SEDS), but he naturally came to idea of doing that and took what already used for similar purposes in technical analysis.

I believe that EV based approach that SETDS methodology uses is more appropriate for Computer performance data, but I am always opened to evaluate other means (and often do that in this blog postings)

So,

Bollinger Bands are similar to Upper and Lower Control Limits in SPC. More interesting is that in 2010 the %b (pronounced "percent b") indicator (derived from Stochastic oscillator) was introduced and that somewhat similar to EV-meta-metric I have introduced in 2001. It is similar but in inverse way! p% is between 0 and 100 for actual data WITHIN the band, but EV become non-0 when actual data go OUTSIDE the band.

Applying the same idea we can alslo also normalize EV metric (lets call it “”) to the |UCL-LCL| band:
So if the actual data is not an anomaly, =0;
if it is a actual data jump that is higher than UCL or lower than LCL in a half of band – it will be >100%.

Not sure whether it make some practical sense or not, but really interesting twist!

Let me play with this indicator finding the good place to use and I will report here of any good results.....

In return I would suggest to apply EV and indicators to technical analysis to estimate magnitude of some market unusual responses! Why not?


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Posted By Blogger to System Management by Exception at 1/29/2013 06:00:00 PM
 (BUT LOST!!! - my comment iTrubin)