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Tuesday, August 12, 2008

Exception Based Modeling and Forecasting

My new CMG paper "Exception Based Modeling and Forecasting" is accepted to be presented in the 2008 CMG conference in Las Vegas.

ABSTRACT: How often does the need arises for modeling and forecasting? Should it be done manually by ad-hoc, by project requests or automatically? What tools and techniques are best for that? When is trending forecast enough and when is a correlation with business drivers required? The answers to these questions are presented in this session. The capacity management system should automatically provide a small list of resources that needs to be modeled or forecasted; a simple spreadsheet tool can be used for that. This technique method is already implemented on the author’s environment with thousands of servers.

Here is the link to presentation slides and paper:


The presentation is scheduled on Tuesday December 9th 2008 - Welcome!

ADDITION: This paper also scheduled to be presented in SCMG:
Raleigh, NC, October 17th 2008:
Richmond, VA, October 23d 2008:

EXAMPLE of successful modeling/forecasting from the paper:
There was the typical capacity usage problem. Some UNIX server had bad trend and there was need to make an upgrade. I was participating in the project as the Capacity Planner. I modeled several what-if scenarios  based on common benchmarks (TPM) to recalculate (using just a spreadsheet formulas) UNIX box CPU usage for a few possible upgrades. The result is seen in the following Figure:

After one of my recommendations was accepted, I collected performance data on the newly upgraded configurations and  the server worked as I had predicted